Poor Rainfall may hit Ivory Coast Cocoa - Trade

Lack of rainfall in recent weeks may have affected Ivory Coast 1987/88 main crop cocoa prospects, although good precipitation in the last half of June and in July could still reverse the situation, trade sources said.

They said the crop is still likely to be fairly large and it is too early to determine the consequences of the dry spell on the harvest.

“This year’s crop will probably be another good one. It is impossible to tell how flowering is going, but there should be no problems unless something drastic happens,” one trader said.

Private forecaster Accu-Weather reported today that most Ivory Coast cocoa growing regions were without rain over the weekend and similar weather will persist today and Tuesday.

“Rain would be welcomed, as the past week has been quite dry, except along the western portion of the coast,” it said.

Traders agreed rain was needed, but some noted that the dry conditions had not affected the entire country.

The Ivorian Meteorological Office could not be reached for comment or recent statistics. The trade sources said rainfall in recent weeks was likely insufficient for cocoa plants, although it is difficult to assess what the minimum requirements are.

Trade sources said there had been good rains in late January, February and March which helped to promote flowering, but April and May were fairly dry in most areas except in the south west of the country.

The Ivory Coast mid-crop should have been covered by March/April rains but the main crop, still in its formation period, depends largely on rainfall from April through July.

The main rains normally last between May and July, before returning again in September/October. “Flowering has been less than normal and if the trees are not carrying that much at the moment, then they have a chance to recover,” one trader said.

Another trade source noted the flowers still had plenty of time to develop and the rains were “not good but still not bad.”

The sources said that while the weather might emerge as a cause for concern, crop conditions in West Africa were presently taking a back seat to other factors in the international cocoa market.

This is not only because of the premature nature of any harvest predictions but also because of the supply of cocoa already burdening the market, they said.

“With a third year of surplus overhanging the market and the buffer stock failing to boost prices despite regular purchases, the weather has not been a factor,” one private consultant said.

London-based dealer Gill and Duffus said in its April cocoa market report the current 1986/87 Ivory Coast crop was likely to total 570,000 tonnes, which compares with a record 1985/86 crop estimate of 585,000 tonnes.