Zinc Concentrate Supply Shortfall Seen in 1988

Next year is likely to see a shortfall in zinc concentrates of up to 100,000 tonnes, although there should be ample supply in 1987, Shearson Lehman Brothers Ltd metals analyst Stephen Briggs said.

Speaking on the second day of Metal Bulletin’s base metals conference, Briggs said the major factor in his predicted 100,000 tonne shortfall in zinc concentrate supply in 1988 was the imminent cessation of new mining and termination of milling at Pine Point in Canada.

However, this could be partially offset by some stockpiles.

Nevertheless, despite this predicted shortfall there was unlikely to be any dramatic change in treatment charges in 1988. The picture for 1987, on the other hand, was one of record production of zinc metal with fewer strikes anticipated in Canada, some improvement in South America and new capacity in South Korea.

“Dramatic new record levels of concentrate output are also expected in 1987,” Briggs said.

This would partly be due to a return to more normal levels at existing mines in Australia and Peru, allied with achievement of full capacity of 170,000 tonnes a year at Faro in Canada.

Looking further forward, the major event was the probable opening in 1991 of the Red Dog mine in Alaska with a capacity of 300,000 tonnes of concentrates a year.

“Once this mine is fully on stream it is unlikely that there will be a major shortage of concentrates in the early 1990s,” he added.

The picture for lead was also closely allied to that of zinc, with no new dedicated lead mines planned and therefore supply of concentrates largely dependent on by-products from zinc mines.

“On this basis, our calculations point to a modest oversupply of lead concentrates in 1987,” Briggs said.

The copper forecast, however, was for a record non-Socialist output of 6.6 mln tonnes of concentrates in 1987, increasing by a further 150,000 tonnes in 1988.

Production of primary refined copper metal would also increase, but not by as much as concentrate output, leading to a moderate oversupply of concentrates of up to 150,000 tonnes this year and with no shortages predicted for the rest of the decade, he said.